Penguin Random House is the largest trade publishing company in the world. The Data Science team is seeking an experienced Senior Machine Learning Scientist to drive the development of forecasting products and decision-support models. Accurate and timely forecasting is foundational to our business model, helping us plan demand, manage inventory, orchestrate our supply chain, and allocate resources. Improving forecast quality has a direct downstream impact on operational and financial outcomes.
We are investing in expanding our portfolio of business-critical forecasts and further improving our existing models. This role will own forecasting work end-to-end from model development to deployment to output monitoring, in close partnership with business stakeholders, platform engineers, and the rest of the forecasting group.
We have a mature machine learning practice and strong infrastructure, supported by strong data warehouse and DevOps partners. We are transitioning to AI-accelerated development and use modern agentic coding tools like Claude Code to speed up how we build and maintain forecasting systems, with rigorous quality gates including tests, reproducible workflows, and measurable improvements in model performance and reliability.
Experience with Claude Code or agentic workflows is a plus, but we prioritize strong fundamentals and the ability and willingness to learn new workflows effectively.
This role may be filled at the Senior or Staff level depending on experience and interview performance.
Specific responsibilities include:
- Own end-to-end forecasting systems: scoping, feature engineering, model development, backtesting/validation, deployment (with platform partners), monitoring/alerting, retraining cadence, and ongoing reliability improvements.
- Build and improve forecasts across horizons and business segments, selecting approaches that balance accuracy, stability, interpretability, and operational cost.
- Create and maintain a production-safe forecasting evaluation harness: automated backtests, error decomposition, uncertainty quantification and calibration, data validation, regression gates, and auditable model/version lineage.
- Productize forecast outputs for stakeholders: clear definitions and assumptions, versioned releases, and lightweight reporting that explains what changed, why it changed, and how uncertainty should shape decisions.
- Build AI-assisted/agentic development workflows (e.g., Claude Code and similar tools) to automate repetitive forecasting tasks with human review and measurable quality gates.
- Partner with operations, supply chain, inventory, finance, and marketing leaders to translate planning needs into a prioritized technical roadmap and measurable business impact.
Please apply if you meet the following qualifications:
- 5+ years in applied ML/data science, including owning models in production (deployment, monitoring, incident response/debugging, retraining)
- Deep forecasting expertise (time-series + feature engineering + rigorous backtesting), including hierarchical/segmented forecasting where appropriate
- Strong statistics fundamentals; comfort with probabilistic forecasting and explaining uncertainty in practical terms
- Strong Python and SQL; writes production-quality, testable code and supports reproducible workflows
- Strong communication and cross-functional collaboration skills with non-technical stakeholders
Preferred qualifications:
- Experience building forecasting systems (not just models): backtesting frameworks, scheduled retraining, monitoring/alerting, and automated reporting into planning workflows
- Experience with hierarchical forecasting, calibration, or probabilistic forecasting methods
- Experience using AI/automation tools responsibly in development workflows (verification loops, measurable gates)
- Experience integrating forecasting with optimization or decision science where appropriate
Please be advised that candidates selected to advance to the 1st round of interviews will be required to show photo ID on camera, and final interviews for this role will be in person at a Penguin Random House location.
The salary range for this position is $160,000 - $210,000. All positions are currently eligible for an annual profit award or bonus, subject to company results.
Applications for this role will be accepted through May 15, 2026 or until the role is filled. We encourage you to apply early, as we review applications on a rolling basis. Please include your resume and cover letter for consideration. Before applying for any role at Penguin Random House, we recommend you review our applicant resources page and our FAQ